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Are there hidden messages in the Bible? Revisiting the claims of the Bible Code

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 4, from 2011

The Bible contains hidden messages which predicted the terrorist attacks of 11th September 2001, Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 and other historical events thousands of years before they actually happened. At any rate, this is claimed by the US author Michael Drosnin whose book The Bible Code became a bestseller worldwide in 1997 (Drosnin, 1997). According to Drosnin, it only takes arranging the letters of the Hebrew original text of the Bible in the right manner and the most interesting prophecies come to light.

The idea to search the Bible for hidden messages goes back to the Jewish Rabbi Chaim Weissmandl. In the 1940s, he searched the text of the Torah (which corresponds approximately to the Old Testament) for possible messages by forming so-called equidistant letter sequences. Such a sequence is formed when not all the letters of a text are looked at, but only every third or tenth or thousandth, and in this process blanks and punctuation marks are ignored. Usually a meaningless sequence of letters – which at best by chance contains a few meaningful words – is generated by means of this method. If, however, within an equidistant letter sequence several meaningful words turn up, which together make up a message, this suggests that the author deliberately encrypted a hidden message in the text.

The Rips code

In the year 1983, the apparently positive results of Chaim Weissmandl inspired the Israeli mathematician Eliyahu Rips to occupy himself with the alleged codes in the Torah. Then as now, Rips was considered to be an ingenious mathematician, who has acquired an international reputation in the field of group theory. The believing Jew, who grew up in Latvia, had already revealed his mathematical talent in his younger days, but offended with his political views. In 1969, he was sent to prison after having attempted to set himself on fire as a demonstration against the intervention of Soviet troops in the Prague Spring. Even during his imprisonment, Rips made important mathematical discoveries. After heavy protests of Western mathematicians, Rips was released from prison and deported to Israel in 1972, where he continued his career.

In the course of his search for hidden messages in the Torah, Rips took a physicist named Doron Witztum as partner. After first analyses of equidistant letter sequences had rendered positive results, the two of them decided to search the Torah in this manner for the names of famous Jews and the dates of their birth and death. They wanted to know in how many cases a searched name turns up close to the respective date of birth or death. The laws of probability led them to expect a few hits. Rips and Witztum, however, hoped for a particularly high hit rate which would suggest that the Torah held an unknown code.            

By means of a Jewish encyclopedia Rips and Witztum compiled the list of the searched names and dates. Overall, they included 66 Jewish celebrities each with his or her date of birth and death. Due to the fact that every Hebrew letter is assigned to a certain numerical value, they did not have to distinguish between numbers and letters. After this Rips and Witztum developed a statistical model. It defined a measure for the space between two character strings in an equidistant letter sequence. Moreover, it comprised a formula by means of which the arithmetic mean of several distances could be determined. The software for the execution of the search and the computation of distances and arithmetic means was contributed by the computer expert Yoav Rosenberg.

The result of the code search was astonishing: according to the calculations of Rips and Witztum the number of names and correct dates found seemed to be higher and the average distance between name and date of birth or death seemed to be significantly smaller than expected. This suggested that the author of the Torah had intentionally placed the names of the famous Jews including their dates of birth and death in the text. Due to the fact that all personalities in question only lived after the recording of the Torah, it did not seem possible to explain this result by scientific reasoning. Rips, Witztum and Rosenberg discussed their findings with other scientists. Several refinements of their search techniques supposedly did not change the surprising result.

Finally the three scientists submitted an article on their discoveries to the renowned professional journal Statistical Science. Since the specialized editors of this publication, too, did not find serious errors in the line of argument, the article “Equidistant letter sequences in the Book of Genesis” by Witztum, Rips, and Rosenberg (1994) was published in the journal Statistical Science. In this article the authors explained their statistical calculations and specified a significance level of 0.00002 for the small distances between name and date which they had discovered. This seemed to eliminate coincidence as an explanation.

From a topic for insiders to a bestseller

At first, the reactions to Rips’ supposed discovery of a Bible code were not so widespread as one would assume by hindsight. Most experts regarded the alleged Torah messages as a curiosity rather than as a serious field of activity. The public did not take much notice of the Rips code anyway. But this changed when the US journalist Michael Drosnin heard of Rips’ research. Before, Drosnin had worked as a reporter for the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal and had published a successful biography of Howard Hughes entitled Citizen Hughes in 1987. The question of the Torah code fascinated Drosnin so much that he called on Eliyahu Rips in order to inform himself on the matter in detail.

In spite of his fascination, Michael Drosnin obviously did not consider it sufficiently spectacular that only some celebrities from the world of Jewry with their dates of birth and death could be found in the Torah. The US journalist therefore set to work himself, and scanned equidistant letter sequences from the Torah for further messages. In contrast to Rips, Drosnin dispensed with a scientifically exact approach, but – at his own discretion – searched instead for all kind of expressions which crossed his mind. With an appropriate variation of the search parameters he found something within the 304,805 letters of the Torah most of the time.

Like Rips did before, Drosnin also looked particularly for cases in which several meaningful words turn up close to each other within the tangle of equidistant letters. However, he did without the definition of a distance measure and similar mathematical sophistries. In this manner Drosnin hit, for example, on letter combinations which in Hebrew read as “Yitzhak Rabin” and “assassin will assassinate” and which, on top of that, intersect. The journalist interpreted this as an allusion to the murder of the Israeli Prime Minister Rabin in the year 1995.

The cover of The Bible Code by Michael Drosnin

Further ‘discoveries’ of this kind finally prompted Michael Drosnin to publish his book The Bible Code in 1997. In his book he reports on numerous alleged prophecies which his code brought to light. They refer to incidents and persons like Yitzhak Rabin, Winston Churchill, Stalin, Adolf Hitler, and Napoleon, as well as to other events in the history of the world. Moreover, Drosnin wrote that after the analysis of the biblical messages he had tried in vain to warn Yitzhak Rabin of the forthcoming assassination. However, this statement is not proven.

In his remarks Drosnin cunningly obliterated the fact that the alleged predictions on world history found by him did not have much to do with the work of Rips – neither with regard to the results nor with regard to the scientific level. Instead, Drosnin described Rips reverentially as hero and inventor of the Bible code and modestly took a back seat. This strategy, which was equally clever as it was bold, had the desired effect. The Bible Code became an international bestseller with 20 million copies sold worldwide.

The reactions

While many laymen took the code baubleries in Drosnin’s book at face value, experts only shook their heads. Statisticians and cryptologists agreed that with Drosnin’s method it was possible to find all kinds of messages in almost any book. In the case of the word “Rabin”, Drosnin chose an increment of 4,772, whereas it is entirely unclear for which other terms Drosnin searched the text and how high his hit rate was. As the author also counted words written backwards or diagonally, the hit rate was enhanced additionally. Last but not least, it was advantgageous for Drosnin that the original text of the Bible does not contain any vowels. Therefore the name “Yitzhak Rabin”, for example, consists only of eight letters. A further simplification results from the fact that Hebrew consists of only 22 letters. As each letter corresponds to a number, Drosnin also found many numbers referring to years in his equidistant sequences. Of course, the clever journalist made use of the fact that with an increment of one, numerous significant words inevitably will occur. By this method Drosnin found the expression “assassin will assassinate” – which is literally cited in the Bible (Deuteronomy 4:42).

Drosnin was not taken aback by such arguments. In the magazine Newsweek, he challenged his critics to find comparable messages in the text of Herman Melville’s novel Moby Dick (Begley, 1997). If they succeeded in this, he argued, the randomness of the Bible code would be proven. The Australian mathematician Brendan McKay willingly accepted this challenge and demonstrated that it was possible to find would-be prophecies in Moby Dick. Although in contrast to Hebrew, in English the vowels are not missing, McKay detected the murders of Indira Gandhi, Leon Trotsky, Martin Luther King, and John F. Kennedy in the well-known whale story (McKay, 1997). Moreover, McKay came across the words “MDrosnin”, “nail”, “killed”, and “liar” which were close together (Drösser, 1997). Besides, together with the Australian telecaster John Safran, McKay found hidden messages in the lyrics of the rapper Vanilla Ice (Safran, 2004).

The US sceptic David E. Thomas also headed out to search for hidden pre-dictions. For the Skeptical Enquirer, he dealt with the King James version of the Old Testament and there came upon the word “Roswell” and the letters “UFO”. Furthermore, the physicist scanned the Book of Genesis, the English Bible, and a decision of the US Supreme Court for terms. Among other things he hit upon “comet”, “Hale”, “Bopp”, “died”, as well as “Los Alamos”, “atom”, and “bomb”. The name “Hitler”, too, together with “Nazi”, was among the hits in this text (Thomas, 1997).

The German sceptic organization GWUP also attended to the matter. In the year 1999 GWUP member Wolfgang Hund scanned the fairy tale “Rotkäppchen” (Little Red Riding Hood) and there ‘discovered’ a prophecy tailor-made for the mental magician Uri Geller: “Uri is in LA in March to meet US CIA men on old UFO”. Obviously, the Brothers Grimm at that time already knew of a meeting between Uri Geller and the CIA, and encoded this information in the form of an equidistant letter sequence in their fairy tale (Schmeh, 2006).

In the face of this state of affairs Drosnin was the subject of a series of malicious comments in the reputable media. “He who mines data may strike fool’s gold”, BusinessWeek said (Coy, 1997). The professional journal Cryptologia called the Bible code a “Leap of Faith based on fallacious mathematics” (Nichols, 1998). The German weekly journal Der Spiegel described Drosnin’s book as an “esoteric tome” and spoke of a “code without a future” (Der Spiegel, 1997). James Randi made the following remark: “The bottom line, of course, is that if you have a big enough text, and the ‘rules’ are as loose as they are, you can find ANYTHING you want” (Trull, 1997).

A scam that’s run its course

Of course, Eliyahu Rips also distanced himself from Drosnin’s book. He stated that he had not cooperated with Drosnin, that he did not support Drosnin’s reasoning, and that he considered the attempt futile to gather predictions from the Bible code (Rips, undated). However, all that did not bother Drosnin in the least. In the year 2002, he went one better with a further book which appeared under the title The Bible Code II: The Countdown (Drosnin, 2003). This work is hardly to be outdone in presumptuousness. Drosnin still does not discriminate between the Bible code described by himself and the work of Rips. The author does not waste one word on the criticism of his code fantasies, but solely responds to the criticism regarding the statements of the Israeli scientist. Of course, Drosnin also conceals that Rips had already distanced himself from Drosnin’s bestseller and instead once again presents the mathematician as his partner to whom he regularly talked over the telephone and whom he frequently went to see during his research.

With regard to contents the second Bible-code book offered little new information. Meanwhile Drosnin inevitably claimed to have also discovered the attacks on the World Trade Center in the year 2001 along with some other important events in world history in the Bible. The scientific level of the work again is bottom drawer. Thus the book neither contains mathematical nor statistical details. But Drosnin had apparently learned in the meantime what Nostradamus already knew: when making prophecies of world events one should not be stingy with horror scenarios. In The Bible Code II Drosnin therefore presents a coming “nuclear holocaust” for the year 2006 which explains the subtitle The Countdown. However, the aforementioned catastrophe has not yet not happened.

With his second Bible-code publication Drosnin found that his scam had run its course, as the sales figures of The Bible Code II fell short of its predecessor. But in the year 2003, another kind of honour was bestowed on Drosnin: he received an invitation from the US Department of Defense where intelligence staff interrogated him on the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden. However, a suitable Bible passage for this extremely interesting question has not been found yet.

Already years ago, Drosnin advertised the third part, entitled The Bible Code III: The Quest. But the release was deferred repeatedly. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung did not refrain from offering critical words in advance: “To find the word pairs ‘too much’ and ‘fantasy’ in it [in the third Bible-Code book] will only be a question of assiduity and computing power.” (Schmitt, 2006). In October 2010, the book was finally published (Drosnin, 2010). The title had been changed to The Bible Code III: Saving the World. The content of this third Bible-Code work didn’t take anybody by surprise. Drosnin reports of additional prophecies he has allegedly discovered in the Bible. This time he found, among others, the elections of Barack Obama and David Cameron, the financial crisis of 2007, the Madoff scandal, and of course the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 – too bad none of these events had been mentioned in Drosnin’s second Bible code book (released in 2003). Another topic Drosnin continues in his new book is the warning of a global disaster (“atomic holocaust”). He does not waste much time explaining why such an apocalypse didn’t take place in 2006, which is what he predicted in the second Bible code book. Instead Drosnin describes a new scenario: an atomic terror attack, which might result in World War III. During all his code work Drosnin had Eliyahu Rips as an important partner – at least if Drosnin tells the truth. As Rips distanced himself from Drosnin years ago, such a partnership would certainly be a surprise.

It is quite obvious that Drosnin’s third attempt to make people believe in a Bible code has so far not been very successful. A Google search reveals that the media interest in the new book is almost non-existent. Amazon listed The Bible Code III at position 8,911 in the bestseller ranking (checked on November 30, 2010) with only 15 reviews. The first book of the series received 351 reviews.

Does at least the Rips code exist?

A woman studies a bible

While the professional circles had only ridicule for Drosnin’s Bible code, the slightly less spectacular works of Rips and Witztum found considerably less opposition. Nevertheless, these works too encountered well-founded criticism. A publication of the already mentioned mathematician Brendan McKay and three other authors in the journal Statistical Science (McKay, Bar-Natan, Bar-Hillel, & Kalai, 1999) is considered as the most important work on this topic. First and foremost, the four scientists pointed out that the approach to code searching chosen by Rips and Witztum while appropriate was but only one of several possible alternative solutions. Regarding the selection of the Rabbis, Rips and Witztum took some liberties; the same applied to the spelling of the names, for which in almost every case there were several alternatives. With regard to the definition of the statistical model – particularly the distance dimension – there also was room for manoeuvre. Rips and Witztum could use this considerable leeway to choose the parameters in such a manner that the highest-possible hit rate would be achieved. The analyses of McKay and his colleagues actually showed that almost any other choice of parameters than Rips’ would have led to a less spectacular result. However, the experts around McKay avoided stating explicitly whether they thought Rips and Witztum had deliberately chosen favorable parameters or whether it was a coincidence or a mistake.

Apart from statistical arguments, McKay and his colleagues pointed out another problem: Rips and Witztum claimed to have conducted their experiments with the original text of the Torah – referring to the Koren edition published in 1962. But there are different versions of all Torah texts and therefore it is practically impossible to indicate an original text. The Koren version, for example, does not match in every detail with the scrolls from the Qumran caves which are considered as the oldest source of the Torah. It is obvious, though, that if the Bible code really existed, one single missing letter could suffice to make it collapse like a house of cards.

Further criticism followed. In the year 2003, the BBC produced a report on the Bible code in the course of which the Rips-Witztum experiment was repeated. This time the significance level was only between 0.3 and 0.5 – i.e., not statistically significant – instead of at 0.00002. Thus the “statistical proof of a miracle” (McKay et al., 1999) turned into a banality. It is not pure chance that the interest in the subject has decreased notably within the last few years.

Meanwhile, Rips added fuel to the fire with a new publication. In it, he claims that the Torah contains a code which alludes to the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in the year 2001 (Rips & Levitt, 2006). This statement was a surprise, because until then Rips’ code discoveries only referred to the names and dates of birth and death of important Jews. However, Rips’ new theory had little to do with Drosnin’s baubles, because the former is mathematically precise. Due to the fact that meanwhile the interest in the Bible code generally has decreased, there has not been much reaction to the new Rips code so far. It is quite striking that once again there are numerous code-search parameters which can be optimized in view of a most spectacular result. Thus, one may continue to entertain some doubts about the miracle.

In the end, the Bible code will probably rank among the long succession of other spectacular codes all of which probably only exist in the imagination. This includes, for instance, hidden messages in the works of Shakespeare which ‘prove’ that in fact they were composed by Francis Bacon (see Kahn,1996, for example). Further codes of this kind are allegedly to be found in the Koran, in the Egyptian pyramids, the Voynich manuscript, on the Shroud of Turin, in the compositions of Johann Sebastian Bach, and in the Nazca geoglyphs – just to name the most important examples (Schmeh, 2008). Perhaps somebody will also scan this article for a code soon. There are certainly ample possibilities to find one.

References

  • Begley, S. (1997). Seek and ye shall find. Newsweek, June 9.
  • Coy, P. (1997). He who mines data may strike fool’s gold. Business Week, June 16.
  • Der Spiegel (26/1997). Code ohne Zukunft.
  • Drosnin, M. (1997). The Bible Code. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
  • Drosnin, M. (2003). The Bible Code II: The Countdown. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
  • Drosnin, M. (2010). The Bible Code III: The Quest. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
  • Drösser, C. (1997). Wer suchet, der findet. Die Zeit, November 21.
  • Kahn, D. (1996). The Codebreakers. New York: Scribner.
  • McKay, B. (1997). Assassinations foretold in Moby Dick!
  • McKay, B., Bar-Natan, D., Bar-Hillel, M., & Kalai, G. (1999). Solving the Bible Code puzzle. Statistical Science, 14, 150–173.
  • Nichols, R. K. (1998). The Bible Code. Cryptologia, 22, 121–133.
  • Rips, E. (undated). Public statement by Dr. Eliyahu Rips.
  • Rips, E., & Levitt, A. (2006). The Twin Towers cluster in Torah Codes. The 18th International Conference on Pattern Recognition, Hong Kong, 20–24 August 2006.
  • Safran, J. (2004). John Safran vs God. Episode 7, SBS TV.
  • Schmeh, K. (2006). Gibt es versteckte Botschaften in der Bibel? Skeptiker, 3, 88–91.
  • Schmeh, K. (2008). Versteckte Botschaften; Die faszinierende Geschichte der Steganografie. Heidelberg: Dpunkt-Verlag.
  • Schmitt, S. (2006). Merkel: Kanzler; Saddam: Knast. NZZ Folio 1.
  • Thomas, D. D. (1997). Hidden Messages and the Bible Code. Skeptical Inquirer, 21(6), 30–36.
  • Trull, D. (1997). Cracking “The Bible Code”.
  • Witztum, D., Rips, E., & Rosenberg, Y. (1994). Equidistant letter sequences in the Book of Genesis. Statistical Science, 9, 429–438.

The First Quackbusters? The early battles between quacks and skeptics

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 4, from 2011

Over the last three or four years, sceptics have redoubled their efforts to expose quacks, their twisted pseudoscience and their dodgy devices. This resurgence in scepticism is the latest round in a tradition of battling quackery that dates back to at least the eighteenth century.

For example, there was the effort to challenge the claims of Franz Mesmer. Whilst Mesmer is nowadays associated with hypnotism (or mesmerism), in his own lifetime he was most famous for promoting the health benefits of magnetism. He argued that he could cure patients of many illnesses by manipulating their ‘animal magnetism’, and one of the ways of doing this was to give them magnetically treated water.

The remedy was very dramatic, because sometimes the supposedly magnetised water could induce fits or fainting. Critics, however, doubted that water could be magnetised and they were also dubious about the notion that magnetism could affect human health. They suspected that the reactions of Mesmer’s patients were purely based on their faith in his claims.

In 1785, Louis XVI convened a Royal Commission to test these claims. The Royal Commission, which included Benjamin Franklin, designed a series of experiments in which one mesmerised glass of water was placed among four glasses of plain water – all five glasses looked identical. Unaware which glass was which, volunteers then randomly picked one glass of water and drank it. In one case, a female patient tasted her glass and immediately fainted, but it was then revealed that she had drunk only plain water. It seemed obvious that the fainting woman thought that she was drinking magnetised water, that she knew what happened when people drank such water, and that her body had responded appropriately. Once the experiments had been completed, the Royal Commission could see that patients had responded in a similar way regardless of whether the water was plain or magnetised, and it concluded that magnetised water was merely a figment of the imagination.

A modern copy of Elisha Perkins ‘tractor’ held in the science museum

Closer to home, one of the first medical claims to come under close sceptical scrutiny concerned a set of medical devices known as ‘tractors’. These implements received the first medical patent issued under the Constitution of the United States in 1796 and were invented by a doctor named Elisha Perkins. At first glance they looked like nothing more than a pair of metal rods, but he claimed they could extract pains from patients.

The tractors were not inserted into the patient, but were merely brushed over the painful area for several minutes, during which time they would “draw off the noxious electrical fluid that lay at the root of suffering”. Luigi Galvani had recently shown that the nerves of living organisms responded to ‘animal electricity’, so Perkins’ tractors were part of a growing fad for healthcare based on the principles of electricity.

As well as providing electrotherapeutic cures for all sorts of pains, Perkins claimed that his tractors could also deal with rheumatism, gout, numbness and muscle weakness. He soon boasted of 5,000 satisfied patients and his reputation was buoyed by the support of several medical schools and high profile figures such as George Washington, who had himself invested in a pair of tractors.

The idea was then exported to Europe when Perkins’ son, Benjamin, emigrated to London, where he published The Influence of Metallic Tractors on the Human Body. Both father and son made fortunes from their devices: as well as charging their own patients high fees for tractor therapy sessions, they also sold tractors to other physicians for the cost of five guineas each. They claimed that the tractors were so expensive because they were made of an exotic metal alloy, and this alloy was supposedly crucial to their healing ability.

However, John Haygarth, a retired British physician, became suspicious about the miraculous powers of the tractors. He lived in Bath, then a popular health resort for the aristocracy, and he was continually hearing about cures attributed to Perkins’ tractors. He accepted that patients treated with Perkins’ tractors were feeling better, but he speculated that the devices were essentially fake and that their impact was on the mind, not the body. In other words, credulous patients might be merely convincing themselves that they felt better, because they had faith in the much-hyped and expensive Perkins’ tractors. In order to test his theory he made a suggestion in a letter to a colleague:

Let their merit be impartially investigated, in order to support their fame, if it be well-founded, or to correct the public opinion, if merely formed upon delusion . . . Prepare a pair of false Tractors, exactly to resemble the true Tractors. Let the secret be kept inviolable, not only from the patient but also from any other person. Let the efficacy of both be impartially tried and the reports of the effects produced by the true and false Tractors be fully given in the words of the patients.

Haygarth was suggesting that patients be treated with tractors made from Perkins’ special alloy and with fake tractors made of ordinary materials to see if there was any difference in outcome. The results of the trial, which was conducted in 1799 at Bath’s Mineral Water Hospital and Bristol Infirmary, were exactly as Haygarth had suspected – patients reported precisely the same benefits whether they were being treated with real or fake tractors. Some of the fake, yet effective, tractors were made of bone, slate and even painted tobacco pipes. None of these materials could conduct electricity, so the entire basis of Perkins’ tractors was undermined.

John Haygarth - a painting from the 18th Century of John Haygarth sitting in a chair and wearing period dress. He has white hair and broad dark eyebrows.
John Haygarth

Instead Haygarth proposed a new explanation for their apparent effectiveness, namely that “powerful influence upon diseases is produced by mere imagination”. He argued that if a doctor could persuade a patient that a treatment would work, then this persuasion alone could cause an improvement in the patient’s condition – or it could at least convince the patient that there had been such an improvement. In one particular case, Haygarth used tractors to treat a woman with a locked elbow joint. Afterwards she claimed that her mobility had increased. In fact, close observation showed that the elbow was still locked and that the lady was compensating by increasing the twisting of her shoulder and wrist.

In 1800 Haygarth published Of the Imagination as a Cause and as a Cure of Disorders of the Body, in which he argued that Perkins’ tractors were no more than quackery and that any benefit to the patient was psychological – medicine had started its investigation into what we today would call the ‘placebo effect’.

The word ‘placebo’ is Latin for ‘I will please’, and it was used by writers such as Chaucer to describe insincere expressions that nevertheless can be consoling: “Flatterers are the devil’s chaplains that continually sing placebo”. It was not until 1832 that ‘placebo’ took on its specific medical meaning, namely an insincere or ineffective treatment that can nevertheless be consoling.

Importantly, Haygarth realised that the placebo effect is not restricted to entirely fake treatments, and he argued that it also has a role to play in the impact of genuine medicines. For example, although a patient will derive benefit from taking aspirin largely due to the pill’s biochemical effects, there can also be an added bonus benefit due to the placebo effect, which is a result of the patient’s confidence in the aspirin itself or confidence in the physician who prescribes it. In other words, a genuine medicine offers a benefit that is largely due to the medicine itself and partly due to the placebo effect, whereas a fake medicine offers a benefit that is entirely due to the placebo effect.

As the placebo effect arises out of the patient’s confidence in the treatment, Haygarth wondered about the factors that would increase that confidence and thereby maximise the power of the placebo. He concluded that, among other things, the doctor’s reputation, the cost of the treatment and its novelty could all boost the placebo effect. Many physicians throughout history have been quick to hype their reputations, link high cost with medical potency and emphasise the novelty of their cures, so perhaps they were already aware of the placebo effect. Nevertheless, Haygarth deserves credit for being the first to write about the placebo effect and bringing it out into the open.

Today, despite the rise of science and breakthroughs in medicine, quack therapies, quack theories and quack devices are still widespread, partly because they continue to skillfully take credit for the placebo effect. Hence, it is to the credit of the sceptical community that we continue to challenge these therapies, theories and devices, while those who should be taking action stand idly on the sidelines.

For example, while the Government tolerates the funding of bogus therapies such as homeopathy, it is crucial that campaigns such as 10:23 try to inform the public about the reality behind these sugar pills. Also, we hope the Nightingale Collaboration, which only started this year, will play an increasingly important role encouraging the public to use the existing framework of legislation and guidelines to remove misleading claims. Such examples of sceptical activism help protect patients who might otherwise waste their money on treatments that are not only ineffective, but also potentially dangerous.

This edition of The Skeptic contained a special selection of articles about quackery and anti-quackery activism. It is reassuring to see that the spirit of John Haygarth lives on, but sad that such quack-busting is necessary in the twenty-first century. 

Therapeutic Touch: another health scam from America

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 4, from 2011

It seems that every time I write or speak to an audience outside of the United States I am saddened to announce another quackery that originates from or has a major emphasis in that country. Today I am again ready to tell you about one more example of the gullibility to be found in the USA. Today’s example also claims to have research to support it. So let us begin.

The comfort of the patient and the alleviation of suffering have always been top priorities of the noble profession of nursing. In recent decades many nurses have felt that with the increasing use of technology, advances in scientific medicine, and the cost-cutting emphasis of health insurance groups and the introduction of ‘practical nursing’ (whose practitioners usually have less education, less experience, and who accept lower pay), nursing is becoming marginalised and trivialised.

It is understandable that frustration with this perceived situation would serve as an incentive to embrace new concepts and techniques that would be unique to nursing and be consistent with the priority of better patient care. Nurses have always felt that they were closer to the patients and more sensitive, more empathic and more aware of the needs of patients. They also have more time to truly ‘care’ for the patient than do overworked physicians.

In the early 1970s, Dolores Krieger, a professor of nursing at New York University, introduced the technique of Therapeutic Touch (TT). She also collaborated with Dora Kunz to develop a philosophical background to provide an understanding of the processes which underlie TT. Initially it was suggested that TT had close associations with Eastern mysticism and metaphysics. References were made to an undefined human energy field which could quite possibly be related to Chi, Prana, and chakra energy centres in the body and in addition the idea was that somehow this energy field could become disturbed and TT was one way to ‘unblock’ the energy field and restore health. However, some of these terms and associations have been minimised in recent years, perhaps in an attempt to reduce resistance from science – and evidence-based medicine. It is quite understandable that questionable New- Age associations would make it easy to dismiss TT as yet another quackery which would claim to be exempt from ‘Western’ scientific scrutiny.

The techniques of TT could easily be taught to nurses and soon claims were being made that patient comfort, satisfaction and recovery from various ailments were all markedly improved by the administration of TT. At the same time, critics were concerned by what they perceived to be New Age mystical nonsense. While the beneficial effects of actual physical contact/touch to the development of infants, the enhancement of interpersonal relations and general physical and mental health have long been recognised, this new TT is actually the application of ‘non-touch’ where a practitioner holds her or his hand(s) several inches (7-12 cm) above the patient’s skin. In demonstrations of TT the practitioner is seen to wave their hands over the patient and end by shaking their hands away from the patient, as if shaking off droplets of water, but here it is considered to be shaking off the ‘negative energies.’ If one ever observed the followers of Mesmer (animal magnetism), or the traditional psychic healers, the same hand-waving behaviours are seen.

Kreiger and her followers do deserve some credit for recognising that modern evidence-based medicine demands research to support new and controversial health care techniques. Adherents of TT point to more than 20 years of accumulated research that, they say, provides adequate support for the efficacy of TT. The latest available information suggests that more than 85,000 health care workers (mostly nurses) practice TT, that it is taught in 76 countries including the UK and over 100 schools of nursing. However, until recently critics easily dismissed such research because double-blind procedures were not used, the critical measure was actually irrelevant to the condition being studied, too few subjects were tested and results could not be replicated.

However, the field of TT seems to have a seriously split personality. On the one hand there has been some attention to research, but on the other hand there are probably many more instances of an outright hostility or antipathy to the requirements of a science-based healthcare practice. It is interesting that even some proponents of TT have written reviews of the research and concluded that not only is there inconclusive support for the proposed effects of TT, but also most previous research is seriously flawed (Meehan, 1998; Mulloney & Wells-Federman, 1996). Bullough and Bullough (1998) have given an excellent in-depth examination of the occult/mystical/spiritualism roots and continued associations of TT.

Recent research has attempted to examine TT effects on human cell growth and DNA synthesis. This is a marked departure from previous human subject research. It has been dissected by Rosa. As an interesting tidbit of history, one of the earliest critiques of TT was an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association by Emily Rosa (age 11) in April 1998.

My German Experience

Not so long ago this writer had the opportunity to visit with the founder of the Imre Kerner International School of Therapeutic Touch and Energy (formerly known as the Deutsches Institut für Therapeutic Touch) in Haltern, Germany. Dr Imre Kerner has an extensive website that includes references to his many training seminars, books and video tapes to buy, and coverage of recent research studies (all of which are reported as supporting TT) and an affiliation with a European group called International Therapeutic Touch Association (ITTA). One of Kerner’s goals is to standardise the training and certification of TT practitioners, including requiring a background in nursing or medicine, although his own degree is in chemistry. He has obtained his own background in TT through extensive travel to the United States including contacts with Dr Elmer Green (Topeka Kansas, biofeedback and ESP), Dr Janet Quinn (University of Colorado School of Nursing), and Howard Storm (California shaman, healer and writer). And prominently displayed on the wall of his office is a certificate from the Healing Light Center Church. This church is a spiritualist church in California founded and directed by self-proclaimed healer, clairvoyant and medicine woman, Rev. Rosalyn L Bruyere. Dr Kerner, like most adherents to alternative medicine (he prefers the term “cooperative medicine”), accepts completely and uncritically the ideas of energy medicine and a human energy field. Dr Kerner is convinced that the human aura is evidence of this energy field. Kerner’s (and the ITTAs) goals of standardised training are quite similar to those in the USA of the Nurse Healers Professional Associates International organised by Janet Ziegler. The problem for both groups is that neither one has the power to certify practitioners and neither is recognised outside of their own TT community.

Kerner’s web site lists thirteen “recent” TT “research” studies. The authors of one of these studies are bold enough to state that “control of confounding variables was not possible, and therefore not an object of concern.” This writer is alarmed that this almost seems to reflect an arrogance that scientific protocol is irrelevant as long as positive results are obtained. Five of the twelve studies report non-significance, two others misuse statistics, two are ‘pilot’ studies, one is a simple case report and the remainder lack adequate control groups and blinding of subjects. If early research has been either thoroughly discredited or (in a very few cases) not replicated, recent research has done little to increase one’s confidence in the case for TT. Turner’s (Turner et al., 1998) oft-cited burn study and an osteoarthritis study (Gordon et al., 1998) have been carefully examined and found to follow closely in the tradition of other poorly designed, poorly executed and poorly analysed studies (Wagner, 2000). Clearly, the well done research study still remains to be reported.

On the one hand Kerner is to be admired for his professed dedication to a more rigorously trained and respected profession of the TT practitioner. He also seems to avoid the emotional anti-science diatribes of many supporters of TT. On the other hand it is sad to see that he doesn’t seem to understand the subtlety of human interactions that are evident in any healing profession. And it is precisely this subtlety that needs to be critically examined and controlled in any scientific research study of TT. This writer wonders whether research training in the physical sciences (Kerner is a chemist) commonly ignores this problem because it is obviously seldom encountered there. (Of course one might counter that the historical examples of experimenter error found in the works of astronomers Nevil Maskelyne and David Kinnebrook in 1796 – reaction time – and the work of Rene P Blondot dealing with the elusive ‘N-rays’ in 1903 would suggest that such problems are indeed found in the physical sciences.)

Distant Healing?

A diagram of chakra;s running through a silhouette of a body.

Since TT does not involve actual physical contact, we may ask just how far away can the hands of the healer be from the subject? Can TT be compared to ‘distant healing?’ In fact Astin, Harkness, and Ernst (2000) attempted to review studies of distant healing. They included studies of prayer, mental healing, spiritual healing and eleven studies of TT. Their conclusion was that overall, approximately 57% of trials showed positive treatment effect. However, Courcey (2001) has shown clearly that these eleven studies do not give any support to the efficacy of TT.

Glazer (2001) reports that shortly after the September 11 World Trade Center disaster the NHPAI website suggested that long-distance non-touch therapy could be performed on people who died in the tragedy and quotes Dolores Krieger as she explains her (somewhat mystical) attempts to help the victims by long distance.

The Two Minds of TT

Many aspects of alternative medicine share with TT a deeply inconsistent nature. On the one hand they seem to be strongly committed to research. But when design flaws are found or the research is not supportive of the claims, the proponents of these alternative approaches quickly switch and say that science is irrelevant or is not necessary or that the mysterious physics of quantum mechanics surely has answers that confirm the legitimacy of TT. Not only is there evidence of inconsistent thought among TT practitioners, there is also a pronounced paranoia. One hears that physicians are conspiring to denigrate the noble profession of nursing and that health insurance organisations want to hire less-educated practical nurses to save money. Kreiger herself complains of the “strongly reactionary forces whose viewpoints are embedded in materialistic and reductionistic philosophies” and of “the frankly hostile lockstep reactions of the (skeptical) media.” (Krieger, 1999).

A critical editorial published in Research in Nursing and Health (Oberst, 1995) produced an avalanche of letters that clearly demonstrates the anti-scientific attitudes of many TT supporters. The writer of the editorial said there was neither empirical evidence for a human energy field (HEF) nor credible research supporting TT. She went on to suggest that TT actually wastes time and resources in patient treatment. Her main point was that too many doubters were unwilling to publicly say that “the emperor has no clothes.”

Also in Research in Nursing and Health, one letter-writer argued against the “blind acceptance of reductionist inquiry” (Wells-Federman, 1995). Another (Bright, 1995) managed to use at least three of the standard arguments of New Agers. She suggested that women have long suffered persecution because they threaten the “interests of conventional medical men.” Further, she argued that the perception of “the force of subtle energy” (the HEF) has been “dulled, even forbidden through years of Western mechanism and scientific positivism,” and that Krieger has re-discovered a sensitivity “long lost through the development of Western civilisation.” And Daniels and McCabe (1994) state that those male-dominated, authoritarian Western paradigms must be overthrown. Yet another writer (Malinski, 1995) suggested that an equally valid alternative worldview exists where “personal knowledge, feelings and values are primary sources of information,” and “this diversity needs to be celebrated in nursing.” Cynthia Hutchinson, a TT instructor in Boulder with a doctorate in nursing, told the Los Angeles Times that the Journal of the American Medical Association was itself suspect because “it is a political organisation and many physicians… feel threatened by human aura therapy because it means that their power and money are being taken away” (Satel & O’Mathuna, 2000).

It is clear that there is a pervasive anti-science, New Age viewpoint present among TT proponents. They bring up the false dichotomies of “Eastern” vs. “Western” science and of “Female Intuition” vs. “Male Science” when the actual dichotomy is between pseudoscience and science.

It seems that TT’s connection with New Age thinking is no mistake. Kreiger’s co-founder of TT is Dora Kunz. Kunz herself is a self-proclaimed psychic and has strong ties to the mystical Theosophical Society in America. The originator of Theosophy, Madame Helena Petrovna Blavatsky, has been called the matriarch of the New Age (Fish, 1996). Here one can only refer back to the certificate on Kerner’s wall from the spiritualist church, the Healing Light Center Church, and its founder the Rev. Rosalyn Bruyere to realise that even Kerner has such New Age associations.

New Age, TT and alternative medicine proponents are also well known for their consistent use of faulty logic. First, TT is claimed to be valid because “healing with energy has been in existence for at least 5,000 years.” (Davidhizar & Shearer, 1998). But longevity has never been an acceptable scientific criterion for validity, or else dowsing and astrology could now be labeled as science. Second, TT is claimed to be valid because there are more than 85,000 TT practitioners in the United States alone and many schools of nursing train students in TT. But again the citation of numbers or authorities or schools is also not acceptable. It has been said that if millions of people say a foolish thing, it still remains foolish. Third, one hears that many heroes of science were initially scorned. This is known as the Fulton non sequitur although the name of Galileo is often substituted. The argument says that “They laughed at Robert Fulton (of steamboat fame; or substitute the persecution of Galileo) and he was proven right. Now they laugh at (or persecute) us, therefore we will also be proven correct.” It should be clear that each of these three examples lack any validity, but they continue to appear as justification for pseudoscientific ideas. And finally several writers (Mackay, 1995; McCabe, 1994) attempt to tie Florence Nightingale to a “universal healing energy.” However, in fact she emphasised the quite natural healing powers of the body as was so nicely summarised by O. W. Holmes (1842):

90% of those patients seen by a physician in daily practice would recover, sooner or later, with more or less difficulty, providing nothing is done to interfere seriously with the efforts of nature.

Problems with Subject ‘Blinding’

As this article was being prepared I questioned whether space should be devoted to this particular subject. But in all research which involves humans there is the potential for subtle biases to influence the results whether it be medical research or behavioral studies. ‘Blinding’ is essential to attempt to control this bias. It still seems that researchers of TT are unaware of how to adequately conduct a ‘blind’ study where the subject is truly unaware of being treated differently. The sham techniques used in some studies (while commendable in their aim) have been previously criticised, but continue to be used.

In many of these sham techniques assistants are trained to mimic TT hand movements and they practice until “uninformed observers could not tell whether TT or sham was being performed in a staged demonstration.” In an actual TT session the practitioner assumes some kind of meditative state and claims to manipulate some invisible energy field and channels new energy into the ill person’s body. The practitioner must consciously intend to heal and he or she must consciously will that the individual be healed. During the sham treatment the assistants counted backward from 100 by serial sevens to avoid treatment/intent/attention. Several questions need to be answered. First, during the staged demonstration, did they also count backward? Second, could the observers see their facial features during this concentrated backward counting or did they merely attend to the hand gestures? Third, and most critically, why were sham-treated subjects never questioned about whether they knew they were receiving sham treatment? Surely the facial expressions of the calm, relaxed TT practitioners were markedly different from the assistants who were anxiously preoccupied with a mathematical problem. Therefore, we are really not given convincing evidence that this blind technique is at all effective.

First of all, subjects are often able to respond honestly to inquiries. One has to ask why, if nursing professionals are concerned with patient wellbeing, that to date no one has bothered to ask the patients whether they are aware of the differences between sham and actual TT treatment that they are receiving. By asking the patients it might be discovered that ‘blindness’ was not achieved at all. We do know that experimental subjects respond to eye contact, to implied suggestion and to someone with a caring personality although they may not always be aware of these cues. This unawareness is the basic reason for ensuring that the subjects are ‘blind’ to the experimental treatments. There is ample evidence in decades of psychological research of subjects being unaware that they are responding to very subtle cues. One has only to remember the Hawthorne Effect, the Greenspoon Effect (subtle verbal cues, 1950) and the Carpenter Effect (ideomotor action, Vogt & Hyman, 1959). The subtle cues supplied by the practitioners of the sham or mock TT treatments may easily explain any group differences that are found. A lack of awareness on the part of TT researchers of the psychological literature on these subtleties leads one to wonder whether the TT researchers have gone out of their way to deny these subtle influences (other than the wondrous subtlety of TT itself) so that they can ultimately conclude that TT intervention is a ‘proven’ success.

Conclusions

Here we have looked at the origins of Therapeutic Touch (TT). We have examined briefly some of the comments by proponents of TT which have ranged from a bizarre anti-science bias to a New Age orientation and in addition we have examined their use of faulty logic. We have also seen an encounter with a German proponent of TT. Finally, we have looked at the necessity of the subject being ‘blind’ and how the adherents have failed to accomplish this due in large extent to an ignorance of how to properly conduct research with humans.

We are still waiting for a well-designed, well-conducted truly blind (preferably double-blind) study of TT. The research sophistication of some TT researchers continues to grow. However, research of substandard quality must not be accepted as evidence that practices such as TT are efficacious. If the nursing profession itself is to continue to enhance its prestige in the health care community it must distance itself from New Age mysticism and anti-scientific philosophies.

References

  • Astin, J. A., Harkness, E., & Ernst, E. (2000). The efficacy of “Distant Healing”: a systematic review of randomized trials. Annals of Internal Medicine, 132, 903–910.
  • Bright, M. A. (1995). Letters: Re: Therapeutic touch. Research in Nursing and Health, 18, 285–286.
  • Bullough, V. L., & Bullough, B. (1998). Should nurses practice therapeutic touch? Should nursing schools teach therapeutic touch? Journal of Professional Nursing, 14, 254–257.
  • Courcey, K. (2001). Letters: Distant healing. Annals of Internal Medicine, 134, 532–533.
  • Daniels, G. J., & McCabe, P. (1994). Nursing diagnosis and natural therapies: a symbiotic relationship. Journal of Holistic Nursing, 12, 184–192.
  • Davidhizar, R., & Shearer, R. (1998). A touch of care. Nursing Management, 5, 28–31.
  • Fish, S. (1996). Therapeutic touch: healing science or metaphysical fraud? Journal of Christian Nursing, 13(3), 4–10.
  • Glazer, S. (2001). Therapeutic touch and postmodernism in nursing. Nursing Philosophy, 2, 196–212.
  • Gordon, A., Merenstein, J. H., D’Amico, F., & Hudgens, D. (1998). The effects of Therapeutic Touch on patients with osteoarthritis of the knee. Journal of Family Practice, 47, 271–277.
  • Greenspoon, J. (1950). The effect of a verbal stimulus as a reinforcement. Proceedings Indiana Academy Science, 59, 287.
  • Holmes, O. W. (1842/1985). Homoeopathy and its kindred delusions. In D. Stalker & C. Glymour (eds.), Examining Holistic Medicine (pp. 221–243). Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books.
  • Krieger, D. (1999). Viewpoint: Nursing as (un)usual. American Journal of Nursing, 1999, 99(4), 9.
  • Mackay, R. (1995). Letters: Everything in nursing can’t be measured. American Journal of Nursing, 95(7),18.
  • Malinski, V. (1995). Letters. Research in Nursing and Health, 18, 286.
  • McCabe, P. (1994). Natural therapies in Australia: a nurse-naturopath’s view. Nurse Practitioner Forum, 5(2), 114–117.
  • Meehan, T. C. (1995). Letters. Research in Nursing and Health, 18, 481.
  • Meehan, T. C. (1998). Therapeutic touch as a nursing intervention. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 28:(1), 117–118.
  • Mulloney, C. C., & Wells-Federman, C. L. (1996). Therapeutic touch: a healing modality. Journal of Cardiovascular Nursing, 10(3), 27–49.
  • Oberst, M. T. (1995). Editorial: Our naked emperor. Research in Nursing and Health, 18(1), 1–2.
  • Satel, S., & O’Mathuna, D. P. (2000). New age nurses. The Women’s Quarterly, 22 (Winter), 22–24.
  • Turner, J. G., Clark, A. J., Gauthier, D. K., & Williams, M. (1998). The effects of Therapeutic Touch on pain and anxiety in burn patients. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 28(1), 10–20. V
  • ogt, E. Z., & Hyman, R. (1959). Water Witching USA. Chicago; Univ Chicago Press.
  • Wagner, M. W. (2000). Recent research on “Therapeutic Touch.” In B. Scheiber & C. Selby (eds.) Therapeutic Touch (pp. 262–274). Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books.
  • Wells-Federman, C. L. (1995). Letter. Research in Nursing and Health, 18, 472–473.

All web sites in this article were accessed on March 11, 2011.

Foreign aid, ethical obligations and the morality of giving

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 4, from 2011

I’d love to be a full-blown foreign aid sceptic. Nothing spoils an evening in a nice restaurant like a good dose of western middle-class guilt about poverty in the developing world. Wouldn’t it be great if we could dissolve it, and get on with enjoying our good fortune?

There is an argument that many find compelling for why we should do just that. As Immanuel Kant argued, ought implies can: you are only obliged to do things which you can actually do. You may well be obliged to look after your own children, for example, but you’re not obliged to find a cure for cancer by Monday. Armed with this rock-solid moral maxim, the argument then runs that there is nothing we ought to do to help the developing world, because there is nothing we can do. Indeed, well-intentioned help more often than not ends up causing more harm than good.

As private citizens we have good reason to feel helpless in the face of seemingly intractable problems. Most aid comes from government anyway, so our direct debits are just drops in the ocean by comparison. What’s more we know the root causes have more to do with international trade laws, war, and governance in developing countries than they do western generosity.

Worse, there is the law of unintended consequences. For example, a report a few years back by the Commission for Global Road Safety claimed that roads built with international aid were causing unnecessary deaths, particularly among children, because they are not being made safe enough. The saying that the road to hell needs to be paved with more than good intentions has never been more apt.

There is truth in all these sceptical doubts, but they do not let us off the moral hook for the simple reason that the case that we have a duty of assistance is just too strong, whether or not we are responsible for the suffering we seek to alleviate.

Moral philosophers have used a number of analogies to pinpoint the source of this duty. Onora O’Neill asked us to imagine a lifeboat which had room and supplies for drowning people, yet refused to change course even a little bit to pick them up. We would rightly deplore the people in charge of the boat. But by the same logic, we should be prepared to make a relatively small effort to save our fellow human beings, even if we did not cause them to be in the desperate plight they are.

Most of us recognise that there is something obscene about enjoying the incredible wealth and prosperity we do while others die for lack of a few pence per week. The moral imperative to do something about it is so strong that it is no wonder we seek to forget about it, or try to deny it.

That’s where the idea that we do not need to help because we are not responsible and cannot change anything comes in. It’s the ultimate ‘get out of jail free’ card for the tortured western conscience.

But our duty is so not easily removed. Our moral obligation to help is not predicated on us having caused the problems we seek to solve, merely on the fact that we have found ourselves with so much while others have so little. It’s no good saying you shouldn’t have pulled a drowning child from a pond because you didn’t push her in: when the stakes are so high, the mere fact that you can save her at so little cost means that you must.

Nor is the fact that much aid doesn’t work an excuse not to give any. If it could be shown that aid causes more harm than good in the long run, then we should stop giving straight away. But that is far too pessimistic a diagnosis. Take the road deaths, for example. If you put roads where previously there were none, you are always going to have an increase in road deaths. We could eliminate road deaths in this country overnight by banning motor vehicles. We don’t because the benefits are judged to outweigh the costs. In the developing world, good infrastructure can greatly help distribution of essential supplies.

Seeing the limits of aid can even make you more disposed to give it. For example, one of the most compelling reasons to give to emergency appeals is that it is not about the long-term: it is emergency intervention to save lives now that would otherwise be lost. The fact that we are powerless to stop the famines, floods and earthquakes is all the more reason to do something to ameliorate the suffering they cause.

Even if aid is not the answer, that does not mean our responsibilities are discharged. If trade matters more, we should make sure we trade fairly, campaigning to change unjust rules if necessary.

Scepticism about the efficacy of foreign aid should be taken seriously, and we should consider modifying our behaviour accordingly. But it does not remove our moral responsibilities, it simply forces us to think harder about how to meet them.

Is believing seeing? Early research into the unreliability of eyewitness testimony

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 4, from 2011

The history of scepticism is full of trailblazing experiments that tell us a great deal about the human psyche. Take, for example, the pioneering work of Mr S.J. Davey.

In 1890 Davey announced that he had acquired the gift of mediumship and invited small groups of people to his London home to witness his remarkable abilities. Each group gathered in Davey’s dining room and searched the room for any evidence of trickery. Davey then asked everyone to join him around a small table and extinguished the gaslights. Slowly, a pale blue light materialized over Davey’s head. The light then developed into a full-form apparition that one guest later described as “frightful in its ugliness”. After this spirit had faded into the darkness, a second streak of light appeared and slowly developed into “a bearded man of Oriental appearance”. This new spirit bowed and moved just a few feet from those present, its complexion was “not dusky, but very white; the expression was vacant and listless”. The spirit then floated high into the air, and vanished through the ceiling.

Night after night people left Davey’s house convinced that they had made contact with the spirit world. In reality, Davey did not possess the ability to summon the spirits. Instead, he was a conjuror who had used his magical expertise to fake all of the phenomena. However, unlike almost all of the other fake mediums of his day, Davey was not interested in fame or fortune. Instead, his guests had been unsuspecting participants in an elaborate experiment.

Davey wanted to discover the reliability of eyewitness accounts of supposed supernatural phenomena. Davey asked his unsuspecting guinea pigs to send him a written account of the evening, and was stunned to discover that people frequently misremembered information that was central to his trickery.

For example, before the guests arrived Davey hid a large amount of fake spirit apparatus in one of his dining room cupboards. Before extinguishing the gaslight, he invited the group to thoroughly search the séance room. When he saw someone about to look in the cupboard containing his spirit stash, he quickly diverted their attention by inviting them to search him for any hidden paraphernalia. When the room was plunged into darkness, Davey’s trusted friend, Mr Munro, quietly sneaked into the room and used the objects to fake various spirit forms. The “apparition of frightful ugliness” was a just a mask draped in muslin and treated with luminous paint, while the “bearded Oriental” was simply the result of Munro dressing up and illuminating his face with a weak phosphorescent light. To create the illusion that the spirit levitated and then vanished, Munro stood on the back of Davey’s chair, lifted the light high above his head, and extinguished it when he reached the ceiling. Yet many of Davey’s guests produced elaborate accounts of what they had seen, describing amazing looking spirits performing impossible feats.

In 1887 Davey published a dossier cataloguing a huge number of these errors, and concluded that people’s memories for apparently impossible events cannot be trusted. The report caused a sensation. Many leading Spiritualists, including the co-creator of the theory of evolution Alfred Russel Wallace, refused to believe Davey’s findings and instead concluded that Davey may possess genuine mediumistic powers.

Davey contracted typhoid fever and died in December 1890 aged just 27. His ground-breaking work constitutes the very first experiment into the reliability of eyewitness testimony. Since then, psychologists have carried out hundreds of such studies that have demonstrated our inability to accurately recall everyday events.

An empty lecture theatre

For example, around the turn of the last century, German criminologist Professor von Liszt conducted some dramatic studies on the subject. One such study was staged during one of von Liszt‘s lectures and began with him discussing a book on criminology. One of the students (actually a stooge) suddenly shouted out and insisted that von Liszt explore the book from “the standpoint of Christian morality”. A second student (another stooge) objected and a fierce argument ensued. The situation went from bad to worse: the two stooges started to trade punches and eventually, one of them pulled out a revolver. Professor von Liszt tried to grab the weapon and a shot rang out. One of the students then fell to the ground and lay motionless on the floor.

Professor von Liszt called a halt to the proceedings, explained that the whole thing was a set-up, had his two stooges take a bow, and quizzed everyone about the event. Von Liszt was amazed to discover that many of his students had become fixated on the gun and so, without realising it, had forgotten much of what had happened just a few moments before: this included who had started the argument and the clothing that the protagonists were wearing.

In the 1970s psychologist Rob Buckhout conducted a similar experiment, staging mock assaults in front of over 150 witnesses. Again, the witnesses tended to focus on what they thought was important – the nature of the assault – and so failed to remember a much other information about the incident. When they were later shown six photographs and asked to identify the perpetrator, almost two thirds of them failed to do so. On another occasion an American television programme broadcast footage of a mock purse-snatching incident and then asked viewers to try to identify the thief from a six-person line-up. Over 2,000 people called the programme and registered their decision. Even through the footage clearly showed the face of the assailant, just over 1,800 of the viewers identified the wrong person.

Many people think that human observation works like a film camera. However, due to the pioneering sceptical work of Davey, we know that people are perfectly capable of misremembering what has happened right in front of their eyes.

Sceptics are often accused of simply debunking the paranormal. In reality, much of the work goes far beyond simply saying that the paranormal does not exist, and reveals a great deal about our brains, behaviour and beliefs.

Chris French remembers Hilary Evans, 1929-2011

Hilary Evans. Picture courtesy of the Mary Evans Picture Library.

It is with great sadness that we report the death of Hilary Evans, who passed away on 27 July 2011. As readers of The Skeptic will know, Hilary was the co-proprietor of the Mary Evans Picture Library in Blackheath which he founded with his wife, Mary, in 1964. Mary, a long-time sufferer from Alzheimer’s disease, died on 29 June 2010, shortly after The Skeptic ran an essay competition in her honour on the topic of religious belief and delusion.

As well as running the internationally renowned Mary Evans Picture Library, Hilary also found time to write 16 critically acclaimed (and often beautifully illustrated) books on UFOs, visions and other apparitional encounters as well as three novels, 15 books on art, illustration, and picture librarianship, and seven books on social history. His 2009 book, Outbreak, co-written with sociologist Robert Bartholomew,  looks set to become the definitive reference work of our age on bizarre collective delusions and mass hysteria. His final book, Sliders, published in 2010, looked at the phenomenon of street light interference.

Hilary was always a generous friend to The Skeptic. Readers cannot fail to have noticed that many of the images in the magazine are supplied by the Mary Evans Picture Library. As from our July issue back in 1992, his Paranormal Picture Gallery has graced the second page of every single issue with a striking image from the picture library along with a paragraph of commentary from Hilary. The only exception is the issue that is currently being printed for which I acted as a guest contributor as Hilary’s health was failing.

On a personal note, I would like to add that Hilary Evans was also quite simply a very nice man. I feel honoured to have known him.

Wendy M. Grossman adds:
Flickr has made us rather casual about images. To Hilary, they were sources of knowledge about the culture they represented.

In researching Hilary’s obituary for The Guardian, I discovered what many other people already knew: that The Skeptic represented only one aspect of his interest in the paranormal. He joined the Society for Psychical Research in the late 1960s and served on its council for a number of years. He was also a member of BUFORA and the Folklore Society. The organisation he co-founded in 1981, the Association for the Scientific Study of Anomalous Phenomena, which will celebrate its 30th anniversary with a conference in Bath in September.

Dave Wood, ASSAP’s current chairman, says Hilary was one of the first modern researchers “to actively recognise that anomalous phenomena (such as hauntings, UFOs, other apparitions) should not be investigated in isolation but together”. This bent of Hilary’s extended vertically through time as well as horizontally across phenomena. As a folksinger myself, I appreciated Hilary’s knowledge of folklore, which led him to understand phenomena such as fairies and extraterrestrials as manifestations of different eras but with common roots in human psychology.

Writing last week, John Rimmer, editor of Magonia (http://pelicanist.blogspot.com), called him UFOlogy’s philosopher, and praised his “huge, and hugely beneficial influence on the development of a rational and inclusive form of UFO research in Britain”. As Rimmer says there, Hilary was one of those rare individuals – like Robert Morris – who is respected by all sides. I wish I had gotten to know him better.

From the archive: Professor Bernard Carr replies to Jon Wainwright on psi effects

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 22, Issue 1, from 2011.

I’m grateful to Jon Wainwright for his interesting report of my recent APRU lecture. We may not see eye to eye on everything but his description of what I said is accurate and he makes many cogent points, some of which I would like to respond to.

I’m glad he picked up on my “tiger in the grass” analogy (originally derived from a talk by Peter Brugger). The importance of type I errors (seeing a tiger which isn’t there) and type II errors (not seeing a tiger which is there) is clearly crucial for anomalous cognition researchers. However, Jon must appreciate that the analogy cuts both ways: there is no doubt that people sometimes see psi when it isn’t there but the question is whether sceptics sometimes fail to see psi when it is there. We know that tigers exist but does psi exist?

In this context, it is important to stress that the issue of whether psi is real is completely distinct from the issue of why people believe in it. To a physicist like myself the first question may seem more fundamental but the work of the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit demonstrates that the second question is equally interesting to a psychologist. However, even if it is true that people who experience psi have certain psychological characteristics (fantasy-proneness, divergent thinking, etc.), this neither proves nor disproves psi’s existence. Doubtless people who see imaginary tigers also share certain psychological characteristics.

As stressed at the outset of my talk, the challenge is to extend science to accommodate normal mental experiences as well as paranormal ones. This is a useful starting point because, whatever our different views on the paranormal, I’m sure Jon and I would agree that it’s legitimate to enquire whether science can encompass ordinary mental phenomena like memories and dreams. And I don’t just mean this in the sense that psychology studies mental states but in the deeper sense of whether consciousness and its contents can be part of the same sort of scientific theory which describes the material world.

Whether this hope can be fulfilled remains an open question – some people argue that subjective experience is intrinsically beyond the reach of science and Jon discusses this view in his report – but I don’t think sceptics will begrudge me the attempt.

However, I doubt that Jon is comfortable with the second step in my argument: that the type of science required to accommodate normal mental phenomena may also suffice to accommodate paranormal ones. That is one reason why I emphasized Dean Radin’s unification diagram of the different types of mental experience. This plots their rareness versus their profundity and suggests that there is a natural continuum going from the mundane through the psychic to even more exalted states.

I agree with Jon that measuring profundity might be problematic (and one should certainly be wary of self-reporting) but that doesn’t detract from the main point of the diagram – that any scientific theory which aspires to describe mental experiences must incorporate all of them because any experience is valid per se. However, I confess that it was my interest in psi which originally motivated me to construct my theory, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Jon saw my proposal as the thin edge of an unwelcome wedge!

One of my claims is that psychical research provides a bridge between matter and mind – a theme which I explore in greater depth in a recent SPR Proceedings (Carr, 2008). Jon is unhappy with the bridge analogy because he feels it could be a category mistake to assume that matter and mind are the same type of object. He argues that Foster’s wobbly Millennium Bridge would be a better analogy than Monet’s sturdy Giverny Bridge. I agree that my purported bridge is very rickety – it’s still under construction – and I myself considered using the image of the Millennium Bridge, so we’re not far apart here. But the crucial question is whether a bridge is possible in principle.

The problem is that Jon is an “unashamed monist and reductionist”; while he feels the bridge analogy presupposes a dualist view of the relationship between matter and mind. But I don’t really agree here because the problem with dualism is that it fails to account for how matter and mind interact at all, so this would also exclude a bridge. I would claim that my own approach – which invokes a higher-dimensional information space (viz. a “Universal Structure”) which amalgamates ordinary physical space and the space of mental phenomena – is neither dualist nor monist.

Although it is not materialistic, it does invoke an extended form of physics (extra dimensions being all the vogue in physics anyway) and in that sense it is scientific. Whether it is reductionist depends on what one means by this term. Mind is certainly not reducible to old-fashioned classical physics in this picture but it may be reducible to some new extended physics.

On the other hand, my Universal Structure goes beyond the usual one-level reality of materialism, which sounds rather mystical, so I don’t suppose this argument is going to win Jon over. While I concur with his dismissal of the “scurrilous philosophical scepticism which denies that we can have any access to objective reality”, my own theory predicts that consciousness can have access to an ever larger objective reality (i.e., I ascribe an objectivity to what is usually regarded as subjective) and I suspect he might regard this as even more scurrilous. Certainly my claim that there is a hierarchy of mental experiences related to a hierarchy of realities based on a hierarchy of extra dimensions will not appeal to most of my physics colleagues!

Jon worries about “serious ideas being wrenched from their original and highly mathematical context”. There is certainly a danger of this, as evidenced by some ‘new age’ presentations of quantum mechanics, which give the impression that – since quantum mechanics is weird – it can explain anything else which is weird! I also accept that some people may misuse my proposal for their own purposes without properly understanding it. Whether my fellow physicists will regard my use of extra dimensions in the same way is a moot point.

I am certainly a legitimate scientist in my professional life but it must be appreciated that I am going beyond my professional domain in these speculations. Certainly my proposal will not  be welcomed by M-theorists. They are already prone to the accusation that their ideas are too remote from experiment to qualify as physics, and their critics might regard my suggestion as demonstrating a reductio ad absurdum.

My talk emphasized the concept of paradigm shifts in physics and Jon questions this. It is true that there are technical disagreements among philosophers of science about what constitutes a paradigm shift but I don’t think anybody questions that our model of physical reality undergoes occasional and dramatic changes. He criticises people who latch onto gaps in the current paradigm in an attempt to denigrate science but this is mainly in the context of the intelligent design debate.

This is not a topic I touched on, but I do have an interest in the science-religion connection and I share his antipathy towards “polyfilla gods in retreat of advancing knowledge”. However, unlike the denigrators of science, I merely infer that the path of science is not yet complete and that the gaps in the current paradigm may give a clue as to what form the next one will take.

Of course, we cannot know in advance which bizarre ideas some future paradigm may eventually legitimize and one must beware of assuming that ‘anything goes’. On the face of it, nothing could be more bizarre than the notion that the Large Hadron Collider in probing higher dimensions may in some sense be probing mental space, but then some critics would argue that higher dimensions only exist in the minds of M-theorists anyway! It’s not so easy to anticipate which crazy ideas will turn out to be correct, which is why there will always be room for open-minded scepticism.

Reference

Carr, B. J. (2008). Worlds apart? Can psychical research bridge the gulf between matter and mind? Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research, 59, 1-96.

From the archives: Korean fan death, the curiously-local mass killer

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 21, Issue 1, from 2011.

There seems to be an ever-increasing list of things which have been identified as detrimental to the health of the human body: saturated fat, drinking alcohol, not drinking alcohol, not sleeping enough, sleeping too much, masturbation, Cliff Richard and smoking, to name but a few.

Interestingly though, Korean nationals can add another item to that list, specifically the humble fan. Writing in 2004 for the popular conservative Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo, writer Grant Surridge noted that there were generally in Korean newspapers:

each summer from 1990 to 2004, about 10 stories related to someone dying in the presence of an electric fan.

Although I would perhaps expect greater mortality rates among enthusiastic listeners of Richard’s Mistletoe and Wine (I am assured there are such people) than among responsible users of electric fans, Korean society has seemingly genuinely assimilated the legend that, in some cases, fans can cause death.

It is alleged that specific conditions are necessary for fans to cause these deaths. Doors and windows must be sealed creating a closed, and possibly airtight, room. The demise of the victim is supposedly caused either through hypothermic effects, asphyxiation due to the creation of an airless vortex (sometimes surrounding the victim’s face), asphyxiation due to ever-depleting levels of oxygen (and/or increasing levels of carbon dioxide), or some bizarre combination of all of those.

Belief in the phenomenon is not confined to specific circles either. Fan death has been ‘endorsed’ by some high-profile and well-educated figureheads, while reports in the news and media are certainly not a rarity. So, why has fan death become such an entrenched belief? As Seo Min, a professor at Dankook University Medical School, wrote in a column on the topic, “It’s not like Korea’s air is any less oxygen rich”.

His personal theory is that in a country which already holds a belief in killer fans, making such conclusions is perhaps easier than examining the evidence for other causes of death.

I also wonder though if fan death could be used as an explanation of certain types of suicide, in order to spare the emotions or social stigma for family members and to avoid wider disclosure of a clearly sensitive issue?